Wednesday, January 1, 2014

NFL - 2014 Wild Card Picks

I haven't followed the NFL much this season, but thought I would lock in my Wild Card picks and see how my predictions go for these playoffs.
 

Sat 4:35 PM

KC @ IND

MATCHUP

 W-LPFPAHOMEROADDIVCONF
KC11-54303055-36-22-47-5
IND11-53913366-25-36-09-3
 
Andrew Luck at home versus Alex Smith - I'm picking the Colts 24-17.

Sat 8:10 PM

NO @ PHI
 

MATCHUP

 W-LPFPAHOMEROADDIVCONF
NO11-54143048-03-55-19-3
PHI10-64423824-46-24-29-3


Drew Brees versus Nick Foles - I'm picking the Saints in a shootout, 44-31.





















Sun 1:05 PM

SD @ CIN

MATCHUP

 W-LPFPAHOMEROADDIVCONF
SD9-73963485-34-44-26-6
CIN11-54303058-03-53-38-4
 
Phillip Rivers versus Andy Dalton - I like Dalton, but I'm picking the Chargers 31-30. 

Sun 4:40 PM

SF @ GB

MATCHUP

 W-LPFPAHOMEROADDIVCONF
SF12-44062726-26-25-19-3
GB8-7-14174284-3-14-43-2-16-5-1
 
Colin Kaepernick versus Aaron Rodgers at home - I like Rodgers more, but the 49ers have too much experience to lose this one, 20-17. 
 

Friday, May 28, 2010

LeBron Sweepstakes 2010

With the LeBron Sweepstakes in full swing, everyone has a guess of where he and Wade will end up. But the better question (I think) is where should they end up? John Hollinger did an article on the best player matches for LeBron, but I didn't read it...not an ESPN Insider.

For LeBron, I think he could use a dominant big man, and guards that can shoot. Anyone who plays with him automatically becomes a better shooter (see Gibson, Daniel). But I think Greg Oden and Brandon Roy make the Portland TrailBlazers a great fit. LaMarcus Aldridge is a low post scoring threat that does not demand the ball. Both James and Roy seem to be the type of stars that can share the ball. The big question marks are Oden and Roy's health, which is probably to big of a gamble for James to make.

The next best fit is the Cleveland Cavaliers with one free agent acquisition: Joe Johnson. Johnson plays above average defense, is versatile enough to score or handle the ball, and could play Pippen to James' Jordan. Williams (B.J. Armstrong/Steve Kerr) and Varejao (Horace Grant/Dennis Rodman) are two great fits to play with James; add Johnson, and you would just need 3 centers that could play some defense and foul. Antawn Jamison's stock goes up by coming off the bench as a scoring threat and providing depth at the 3 and 4, a la Toni Kukoc.

For Dwayne Wade, the best fit is the Oklahoma City Thunder. He pairs with one of the best shooters in the game, Kevin Durant, who scores most of his points in the flow of the offense. Wade is the slasher; the Jordan to Durant's Pippen. In some ways Wade does many of the same things as Russell Westbrook, so it may open the door for Westbrook to be traded, unless he can develop a 3-point shot. I also am skeptical that the Thunder have a Grant/Rodman type that is needed to complement the scoring at the 2 and 3. And Durant will have to raise his game on D even more.

One of the underrated measures of the Jordan/Pippen championships were their dominating defense. When James and Wade start searching for a new team and teammates, they would be well served to look at the current players who have been on more than 1 NBA All-Defensive Team (1st or 2nd team) and who are not old (Duncan, Garnett, Bryant). There are 5 players who meet this criteria: LeBron James (2), Dwayne Wade (3), Chris Paul (2), Rajon Rondo (2), and Dwight Howard (3). James and Wade should both want to team with one of these other 3.

As the Orlando Magic have anchored their ship to Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis' bloated contracts, good luck there. I cannot imagine any other team taking on one of those 2 after these playoffs. Ditto for what is happening in New Orleans, unless someone can lure the Hornets into a horrible trade (Paul and Peja (or other high priced player) for Devin Harris and the #3). Sign LeBron, trade for Paul, and team with Lopez fill out roster with good shooting 2 that can play defense (Byron Scott) and a rebounding 4 that plays D (Rodman); not bad at all.

Finally, the Celtics are interesting. With Ray Allen coming off the books, if Paul Pierce were to opt out to renogiate his contract, that would open the door for the Celtics to make a play for James or Wade, teaming the All-Defense members with Rondo. All they would need to do is sign Kendrick Perkins to a long term complimentary player deal (around $10M/season) and see if Allen or Pierce would come back for a hometown discount. That's all we need; 2 long-term dynasties in Boston and L.A. again.

I am not as big on the Chicago option. Derrick Rose is a bit hyped; right now, he does not have the shooting ability or defense to make a team elite. Chicago might be better adding Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudamire, who I also do not consider elite because of their defense. If they could do this without giving up Deng, they would be a solid team capable of winning the championship in a 90's/04-07 Detroit Pistons model if the team would develop good chemistry - Joakim Noah could play the Ben Wallace role and provide some cover for Bosh and Stoudamire's defense.

I guess we will just have to wait like everyone else to see what happens.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Selecting the Olympic Basketball Roster

How to choose the roster for USA basketball? I think the answer is easy.

Looking back at the original Dream Team, 9 of the 12 members were between 27 and 30. Two senior members, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson provided iconic leadership, and 23 year old Christian Laettner filled out the roster.
PG: Magic, Stockton
SG: Jordan, Drexler
SF: Bird, Pippen, Mullin
PF: Barkley, Malone, Laettner
C: Robinson, Ewing

Given these guidelines the 2004 Roster:
PG: Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd (31)
SG: Allen Iverson, Ray Allen, Vince Carter
SF: Grant Hill (senior), Pierce (young guy)
PF:Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace
C: Tim Duncan, Brad Miller, Shaquille O'Neal (senior)

The 2008 Roster:
PG: Jason Kidd (senior), Mike Bibby
SG: Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Michael Redd/Richard Hamilton
SF: Lebron James (young guy), Paul Pierce, Shane Battier
PF:Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett (senior), David West
C: Dwight Howard (young guy), Elton Brand

The 2012 Roster: (getting harder to find big guys) (this looks like the best team; could use 1 more big guy though)
PG: Chris Paul, Deron Williams
SG: Kobe Bryant (senior), Dwayne Wade, Brandon Roy, Kevin Martin
SF: Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Danny Granger
PF: Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer
C: Dwight Howard (young guy), Amare Stoudemire

The 2016 Roster: (here they are!)
PG: Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo
SG: O.J. Mayo, J.R. Smith (need some help here)
SF: Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay
PF: Kevin Love, Michael Beasley
C: Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden

And if the superstars are injured or do not want to play, you can plug in a deserving 27-30 year old to take his place.

1992 Dream Team Roster

1992 Dream Team Roster

Monday, December 28, 2009

Kidd: Should HOF close doors for 1 year?

Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards of his generation and a likely HOFer. But he is also responsible for one of the worst decisions in recent NBA history. By deciding not to join Duncan in San Antonio, he essentially threw away his best shot at winning championships.

Shouldn't star players be held accountable for making dumb decisions the same way we laud role players for making good decisions - Robert Horry comes to mind, choosing to join the Lakers after the Rockets and then go to the Spurs. Horry wins 7 championships in his career; Kidd none. Shouldn't realizing your limitations and choosing situations that put you in the best position to succeed be rewarded?

Kidd's ego got in the way of his championship dreams. After his Nets teams were shredded by Shaq and then Duncan, he should have known that he needed to team up with one of them to get the title. But he never did.

Shaq: Wise to be lazy?

Shaquille O'neal was one of the most dominating players in NBA history, but somehow managed only 1 League MVP award (to go with 3 Finals MVPs). Part of this is due to his inability to play a full season. In prime years from 1995 to 1998, he didn't play more than 60 games in a season.

He followed this run with his MVP season (79 games) then missed 8 games the following year and 15 games in each of the 3 following seasons...his last 3 as a Laker. He played 73 games his first year in Miami, and then did not top 61 in the 3 following seasons before posting 75 with Phoenix in 2008.

His missed games have largely been attributed to his not keeping in shape and using the regular season to get in shape for the playoffs. However, what I have not heard mentioned is how this may have allowed him to play until age 37. It seems that his strategy may have expanded his career and allowed him more opportunities to play for titles. When you see Yao Ming break down, you think maybe a guy that size can't play every day without wearing down....maybe their true worth is from February to June. Maybe Portland should think about limiting Greg Oden in a similar fashion.

About this blog...

This blog is a place for me to spell out wild theories about sports, fantasy sports, movies, tv shows, and other pertinent topics that cross my mind. Feel free to chime in.